Despite all the threats from China, Nancy Pelosi came to Taiwan and went back after spending a whole day. Experts are fearing that China, which was stunned by Pelosi's visit, may now attack Taiwan. The Chinese army has also started military drills all around Taiwan.
Bhaskar will know in the explainer that if there is a war, how will Taiwan protect itself from China's huge army?
First of all, know why experts are anticipating war
Donald Rothwell, professor of international law at the Australian National University, tells DW that Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan is a challenge to the leadership of Chinese President Xi Jinping. The 20th Congress of the Communist Party of China is to be held this year. In which Xi Jinping will claim a third consecutive presidential term. In such a situation, Pelosi's visit is to undermine Xi's claim, so he can give a strong response to this move.
As soon as Pelosi leaves, China has announced military drills in Taiwan's waters and airspace in the North, South-West and South-East. Chinese news agency Xinhua has said that this exercise will be done for this whole week with real arms and ammunition. Senior Colonel Shi Yi, spokesman for the PLA Eastern Theater Command, said long-range live fire shooting would be carried out during the military exercise. Simultaneously, the missile will also be tested.
Taiwan may look weak in this comparison, but conquering it will not be easy. Taiwan has made 5 strategies in the event of war. Let us understand one by one…
Strategy 1: America will help if China attacks
Only a few countries have recognized Taiwan. Most countries consider Taiwan a part of China. The US also does not have official diplomatic relations with Taiwan, but the US sells weapons to it under the Taiwan Relations Act. It has been said in this law that it will give necessary help for Taiwan's self-defense.
In October 2021, US President Joe Biden said that the US would defend Taiwan if China attacked Taiwan. This was a different line from America's old stance.
When the US President was asked if the US would defend Taiwan, Biden said, 'Yes, we are committed to doing so.' A White House spokesman later said the remarks should not be taken as a change in policy.
Strategy 2: Make war costly and difficult for the enemy with the Parkupine strategy
Tensions between China and Taiwan are historic. China and Taiwan were separated during the civil war in the 1940s. Since then Taiwan calls itself an independent country. Whereas, China sees it as its province and talks about forceful annexation if needed. That is, the threat of China's attack on Taiwan has been there for decades.
Taiwan has adopted the method of asymmetric warfare to deal with a huge power like China. It is also called parkupine strategy. The aim is to make the attack as difficult and costly as possible for the enemy.
Taiwan has amassed large reserves of anti-air, anti-tank and anti-ship weapons and ammunition. This includes low-cost warships such as drones and the Mobile Coastal Defense Cruise Missile (CDCM). They have the capability to destroy China's expensive naval ships and naval equipment.
Stealth fast-attack crafts and miniature missile assault boats are cheap, but they are very effective military equipment. These can be spread between fishing boats in Taiwan's ports. Marine Mines and Fast Mine Laying Ships can complicate the landing operation of any invading navy.
Training lasts 10 weeks to enlist in Taiwan's most specialized military unit ARP. These jawans have to spend most of the time in the sea or swimming pool. They learn skills from swimming in full uniform to holding their breath underwater for long periods of time. Sometimes they are thrown into the water by tying their hands and feet.
Strategy 3: Monitoring every fleet of China with multilayered sea defense
Taiwan is surrounded by sea on all sides. To capture Taiwan, China would need to move a large number of troops, armored vehicles, weapons, ammunition, food, medical supplies and fuel across. This is only possible by sea, as airlifts and fleets of aircraft have limited capacity.
There is also a chain of islands on the territory of Taiwan. Some of these are near Chinese shores. Surveillance equipment already installed on these islands can trace the first fleets to move off the coast of China. This will give the Taiwanese army enough time for multilayered sea defense.
Before PLA personnel land on Taiwanese soil and begin operations, they will also face Taiwanese sea mines, fast attack craft and missile assault boats as well as land-based marines. This will greatly weaken the position of the PLA.
Strategy 4: One in every 4 Taiwanese ready for guerrilla warfare
Even if Chinese soldiers reach Taiwan by breaching the multilayered sea defense, it has also prepared its cities for guerrilla warfare. Taiwan can use man-portable air-defense systems (MANPADS) and mobile anti-armor weapons such as the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) in urban combat. Also, buildings can be converted into barracks.
According to a 2017 report by the RAND Foundation, Taiwan has 2.5 million people in the military reserve system and 1 million civil defense volunteers. This number is 15% of Taiwan's population i.e. one out of every 4 people are associated with it.
The rate of gun training among Taiwanese has increased rapidly since Russia invaded Ukraine in February this year. Max Chiang, CEO of the Polar Light Training Center in the capital Taipei, says many people who have never seen a gun in their life are learning how to use it.
In the past 3 months, there has been an increased interest in gun training in Taiwan among people of all ages and professions. According to a Reuters report, almost everyone in the country, from tour guides to tattoo artists, is learning to shoot to be prepared for special situations.
Strategy 5: Defend from the Defense System
In times of war, Taiwan's strategy will be to protect its defense systems such as aircraft and anti-ballistic defense systems. With these defense systems, Taiwan can intercept and eliminate China's ballistic missiles. For the past few years, Taiwan has bought dozens of advanced fighter jets from the US. Along with this, the indigenous AIDC F-CK-1 Ching Kuo fighter jet has been made by itself.
Taiwan has kept its aircraft in the highest security base. Along with this, pilots are being trained to land aircraft on the highway in case of airports being bombed.
Along with this, America has talked about providing defense system and intelligence support to Taiwan in the event of war. All of these measures will help Taiwan send a message to China that if a war breaks out, it will be long, costly and bloody.
Strategy 4: One in every 4 Taiwanese ready for guerrilla warfare
Even if Chinese soldiers reach Taiwan by breaching the multilayered sea defense, it has also prepared its cities for guerrilla warfare. Taiwan can use man-portable air-defense systems (MANPADS) and mobile anti-armor weapons such as the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) in urban combat. Also, buildings can be converted into barracks.
According to a 2017 report by the RAND Foundation, Taiwan has 2.5 million people in the military reserve system and 1 million civil defense volunteers. This number is 15% of Taiwan's population i.e. one out of every 4 people are associated with it.
The rate of gun training among Taiwanese has increased rapidly since Russia invaded Ukraine in February this year. Max Chiang, CEO of the Polar Light Training Center in the capital Taipei, says many people who have never seen a gun in their life are learning how to use it.
In the past 3 months, there has been an increased interest in gun training in Taiwan among people of all ages and professions. According to a Reuters report, almost everyone in the country, from tour guides to tattoo artists, is learning to shoot to be prepared for special situations.
Strategy 5: Defend from the Defense System
In times of war, Taiwan's strategy will be to protect its defense systems such as aircraft and anti-ballistic defense systems. With these defense systems, Taiwan can intercept and eliminate China's ballistic missiles. For the past few years, Taiwan has bought dozens of advanced fighter jets from the US. Along with this, the indigenous AIDC F-CK-1 Ching Kuo fighter jet has been made by itself.
Taiwan has kept its aircraft in the highest security base. Along with this, pilots are being trained to land aircraft on the highway in case of airports being bombed.
Along with this, America has talked about providing defense system and intelligence support to Taiwan in the event of war. All of these measures will help Taiwan send a message to China that if a war breaks out, it will be long, costly and bloody.
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